December Water Levels Text
December Water Levels Chart
DECEMBER 2011: NOAA predictions of lower than average rainfall were spot on last month. The total of 1.21" for the month was well below the 2.3" average. This puts the lake near the lowest predictited estimate for last month and good agreement with NOAA's average rainfall prediction. At the end of the year the lake level was at 86.00 or a stage of 66%. The lake is still well above average and 3/4 of a foot above the average for the December. Bearing in mind the NOAA predictions are for a 3 month period It is likely we will still be seeing little rainfall this winter. NOAA is, predicting 50% chance of lower than normal rainfall conditions for the next 3 months. The total rainfall for the year is http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif
The current year accumulated annual rainfall is 54.76 inches which is 13.66 inches more than the average annual rainfall of 41.1 inches. Last year's total rainfall was 42.69 inches.
NOAA indicates a week to moderate influence of La Nina which will start to dissipate in the spring. This indicates less than normal rainfall locally. The lake is reasonablly full. It is nearly a foot higher than it was this time last year. It is expected the lake level in the spring will be similar to what it was this year or slightly lower at an elevation of about 85.0. Currently, It looks like we could get a repeat of this year.
With the lake level above normal the current elevation of 86.0 indicates aquatic planting should take place in 6 to 8 inches of water or near the shoreline on land. This will help prevent them from being too far out of the water during the dry season. If planting Duck Potato or Pickerel Weed try to plant it in more than 10" of water. Ducks will uproot Duck Potato when it is planted in shallow water but they won't touch it if it is planted above the water. I have also found these type of plants should be planted behind a stand of reeds or some other obstruction which prevents waves from washing them out.
NOAA current La Nina - El Nino Synopsis
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
For the nerdy most recent version with tables, charts, and graphs take a look at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The hurricane season is over and it is not expected to see a new prediction until April 4. The latest report (Dec.7th.) from University of Colorado by by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray is a general qualitative prediction for this year's season. They are expecting a normal huricane season. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/dec2011/dec2011.pdf
If you would like to see an estimate of the probability of tropical storms hitting where you live check out this site. It is also produced by William Gray of the Colorado State University. http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com/
Orlando Weather Averages by month http://countrystudies.us/united-states/weather/florida/orlando.htm
The water temperature has steadily declined to a daily average of 67 at the end of the month. It's time to break out those wetsuits. This lower temperature reduces the probability of Amoeba issues. More information may be found at:
http://www.cityofbelleislefl.org/files/39216216.pdf
Thank you for your help maintaining our lakes.
David Woods PE - TEC Engineering, Inc.
Voice 407-859-8737 / email DWoodsTEC@cfl.rr.com
